报告题目：Monsoon climate change in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report – The effects of climate change on the global and regional monsoons（气候变化对全球和区域季风的影响）

报告专家：Andy Turner教授

报告时间：2024年03月29日（周五）9:00

报告地点：气象楼423会议室

主 持 人：张文君 教授

专家简介：

Andy Turner is a Professor in Monsoon Systems jointly between the University of Reading's Department of Meteorology and the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS). His general interests are in tropical variability and change, including the interaction between monsoon systems and other elements of the climate system. He was founding Co-Chair of the GEWEX/CLIVAR Monsoons Panel, is an Associate Editor of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, and a Lead Author of the recent Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Andy is the co-Theme Leader for the Climate & High-Impact Weather theme in NCAS.

报告摘要：

Monsoons supply the majority of annual rainfall to large regions of the tropics and affect the lives of billions of the global population through their reliance on monsoons to supply water for agriculture, industry and human health. This talk reviews the latest expert assessments of monsoon climate change, including from the recent IPCC 6th Assessment Report, and examines progress over generations of climate models. Observed 20th-century rainfall trends in the major monsoon regions as well as in the global monsoon are discussed, along with modelling studies that attempt to attribute these trends to anthropogenic factors. The latest future projections are presented, including from the most recent CMIP6 models which feature larger climate sensitivities, under the various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), than their CMIP5 counterparts. The major uncertainties in near-term future projections of monsoon rainfall are also discussed, including the potentially confounding roles of coupled modes of internal variability and aerosol emissions patterns.

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气象灾害教育部重点实验室

气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心

大气科学学院

2024.03.25