报告题目：Ocean heat transport (OHT) and sea ice in climate models: A CMIP6 and EBM analysis

报告专家：David Ferreirar副教授

报告时间：2024年04月15日（周一）14:00

报告地点：气象楼423会议室

主 持 人：虞越越 教授

专家简介：

David Ferreira obtained his PhD in 2003 at the Sorbonne university in Paris and then moved the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, as a Post-doc. In 2013, he joined the Department of Meteorology at the University of Reading as a Lecturer. His research focuses on the dynamics of oceans and how oceans regulate Earth's climate, mostly using modelling tools. This could be to understand past, present or future climates, and he occasionally think about other planets than Earth. One of his main interests is the dynamics of ocean mesoscale eddies and how to parameterize their effects in climate models.

报告摘要：

Future projections of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice suffer from uncertainties largely associated with inter-model spread. Ocean heat transport (OHT) has been hypothesized as a source of this uncertainty, based on correlations between OHT and sea ice extent across climate models. However, a physical explanation of what sets the sea ice sensitivity to OHT remains to be uncovered. We derive a simple equation using an idealized Energy-Balance Model that captures the emergent OHT–sea ice relationship in climate models. Inter-model spread of Arctic sea ice loss depends strongly on the spread in OHT, with a sensitivity set by compensation of atmospheric heat transport and radiative feedbacks. Southern OHT exhibits a comparatively weak relationship with Antarctic sea ice and plays a passive role secondary to atmospheric heat transport. Our results suggest that addressing ocean biases in climate models will substantially reduce uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice.

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2024.04.10