报告时间：2025年11月26日（周三）10:00

报告地点：气象楼423会议室

主 持 人：张文君教授

报告题目：Indian Ocean Variability Disrupts ENSO Dominance in 2023

报告专家：张磊 研究员                                  

专家简介：

张磊，中国科学院南海海洋研究所研究员。主要从事热带海气相互作用研究，近年工作主要关注全球各大洋之间的洋际相互作用物理过程及其气候效应。以第一/通讯作者在Science Advances、Nature Communications、Geophysical Research Letters等期刊发表论文30余篇。主持国家海外人才计划青年项目，担任基金委共享航次首席科学家、GRL Editor、CLIVAR Climate Dynamics Panel成员等。

报告摘要：

ENSO is the strongest mode of interannual climate variability and typically exerts pronounced global impacts. Yet despite the 2023/24 El Niño ranking as the fourth strongest since 1979, its climate effects were remarkably muted. For example, Western North Pacific tropical cyclone genesis fell to a record low, and the extratropical Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern was notably weak. Using observations and model experiments, we show that the Indian Ocean played the crucial role in disrupting ENSO’s dominant influence. In particular, a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2023, combined with unprecedented Indian Ocean warming, substantially strengthened the Pacific Walker circulation and largely offset El Niño–induced atmospheric responses. This enhanced Indian Ocean impact was enabled by the pronounced Indian–Pacific warming contrast over the past century, which increases the Indian Ocean’s leverage over Pacific winds. These results highlight the growing importance of the Indian Ocean in a warming climate.

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2025.11.21